THE BELOW IS TO BE REWRITTEN NOW THAT I HAVE STARTED WRITING THE SERIES OF POSTS
TLDR;
- The world is often characterised as being on a tipping point and challenged by significant uncertainty.
- Through reading, synthesis and systems thinking, I offer my own take of the state of the world .
- This is not meant to be prophetic. It is a coping mechanism, to make sense of the uncertainty we currently live in.
- I detail these in subsequent posts.
This was co-authored by 3 beers whilst on leave - dont judge
Preface
The world is deeply uncertain.
Its true that the world is at an inflection point - economically (recession), politically (shift to conservatism) and technologically (Industry 4.0, AI..and many other buzzwords).
Fast media is quick to comment on many of these broad trends. Often narrowly scraping the surface and frequently imbibed with hype and opinion. This is expected. After all, many of the issues are so deeply complex, that it is difficult to see linear cause and effect. Those who work in media are paid by eyeballs and clicks. The stronger the headline, the better; facts-aside. These are stressful to read!
It is an unhealthy state to be in - especially if many of the issues affect you directly, whether as an individual, or for work. Uncertainty breeds fear, knee-jerk reactions, and societal toxicity. They could - I fear - even lead to self-fulfilling prophecies, with its roots in nothing more than the nattering of baseless media articles.
Regardless, I am fascinated by unifying theories. Such theories are not intended to cover all ground or make wholly accurate predictions, but instead strike a balance between being simple enough to understand, but accurate enough to inform decision making, in an increasingly uncertain world. The book, Consilience, explains a lot more about this (highly recommended!)
In response, I will aim to share my own take on the state of the world and what the future may look like (mainly grounded in economic issues, but as with many things - it is increasingly being integrated with a whole host of other disciplines.)
This, in my view, is a healthier approach when compared to the mindless consumption (and reaction to) mass media. It is important to personally connect the dots. It doesn’t matter whether it is right or not. It helps one stay sane.
As a matter of work and relevance to myself, some of these will take a Singapore/small economy - view of the matter.
Dear reader, I present:
(Confetti!) WJ’s Conciliatory view of an uncertain world (Fanfare! WAOW)
Chapter 1: A retrospective view of development - A Supposition on the Eras of Economic Development.
- Economic development and technological advancement can be broken down - fairly well - into emergent domains that correspond to a particular time era.
- Capital flows to these distinct “domains”, or as I term it: “engines of growth”. This is where jobs are created, innovation is nurtured, companies are most profitable. It is largely driven by the need to differentiate.
- Each domain is additive & complementary to pre-existing domains. Consequently, there will be increasing permutations and an added complexity to attain growth.
- The contribution of these contemporary engines of growth are diminishing as intangibles are increasingly valued. There is a decoupling of human needs vis-a-vis the future engines of growth.
Chapter 2: The Tragedy of Real Economic Value, and the Rise of the Nonsense Economy
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Mazlowe described a framework of human needs. There are things that are tangible and essential, just as there are things that are intangible and non-essential (self-fulfilment/ transcendence).
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As marketing becomes the key differentiator in a world where material functionality is commoditised, there is a real risk of pervasive bullshit (I am yet to read a seminal piece on this).
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Yet, in the pursuit of growth, capital will continue to flow to such areas. This I term, is the rise of the “Nonsense Economy”. It is the new frontier of rent-seeking behaviour.
- This is enabled by two trends: 1) The pump of the economy (what keeps capital flowing) has changed as debt and cash come cheap. 2) Commoditisation has led to an expectation for many things to be free. However the Freemium Future has indirect trade-offs. Many of which policy makers are dealing with now.
- As a side effect, there is also a declining aspiration to “make” things. Yet, Making is an important component of all economies and helps keep a society grounded. Craftmanship is a rarity, in an age of mass manufacturing.
Chapter 3: The End of the Cycle as we know it - Deglobalisation and the limits to growth
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Global history can be characterised by several cycles - whether economic, geopolitical, industrial etc.
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Humanity is likely to emerge better - History has so far shown that.
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Before that can happen, there are huge issues to solve.
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I reflect on the impact and challenges of this on small, global economies
Chapter 4.1: A Vision for the Future - The Cyclic Nature of the World
- Kondratieff had it right.
- Unless immortality is attained, humans always forget.
- We will progress and regress, following the whims of human nature.
Chapter 4.2 :A Vision for the Future - The Utopic End State and the Reality Check for Humanity
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Alternatively, humanity could find a steady-state and sustainable model for all.
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In offense to liberal ideologies, this may well be a world with The Haves and the Cognizant Have-Nots.
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In a nutshell, there will be a global class divide between the producing elites vs the consuming masses.
Chapter 5: The Rat Race of Humanity
- Humanity, at all levels are in a race.
- The outcome of the race will dictate which Vision of the Future holds - or even one of civilizational collapse.
More to come.