On the Hong Kong Crisis

TLDR;

Hong Kong is on a long-term structural decline;
It is not in China’s interest to save it;
I find this sad.

My connection with Hong Kong

The place renders an odd feeling in me.

I am, and fully identify as being Singaporean (perhaps an idea worth exploring in future posts) in citizenship, but I am half-Hong Konger in blood. I am also perhaps Hong Kong-er in name (canto surname, canto spelling) I have only been there twice in my life. And my cantonese is terrible.

Yet, with whatever fiber of connection i have, I cannot help but feel that the golden age of Hong Kong is over. And I must feel sorry for my peers and friends there. Expectations will need to be changed.

The wheels are already in motion

The US China trade war has been going on for a while.

I view the recent escalation in tensions between the two largely coinciding with the timeline of the US’s domestic politics. Both Trump and Biden are competing to demonstrate who is the most “anti-China”.

As is common these days, the measures imposed appear rash and extreme and are not necessarily rational or logical. It is but another manifestation of good ol’ politics in the lead up to the US elections.

Perhaps as a side effect of this - the US is threatening to no longer recognise HK’s autonomy. I am afraid that the US may have played directly into China’s hands on this one.

It is certainly not in China’s interest to keep Hong Kong afloat. China is not as dependent on Hong Kong’s special concessions as others might think. Shenzhen is already a thriving business hub in nearby Guangdong. If anything, a collapsed Hong Kong removes a thorn in China’s side. A weakened Hong Kong means no more protests. It means a Hong Kong, once powerful and rich, will become decrepit and frail; eventually relying on the mouth it once fed to feed itself.

If protracted, there will be no good reason to do business in Hong Kong. Capital will drain out. Foreigners will be first to go. The best and brightest will leave, or eventually assimilate into China for a richer life.

Rich Hong Kongers might have the capacity to escape. Already, UK and Taiwan woo their citizens. These individuals may not hold any allegiance to the state. Certainly not to China.

So who might remain?

The begrudged but optionless? The hopeful, who have shifted their allegiances to China and its handout-diplomacy?

These are hypothetical. I may be out of touch with what is happening on the ground.

HK in 2050

I wonder what the Hong Kong of 2050 will look like.

A hollowed out gray city with an aging population. Skyscrapers like empty jewelry boxes, that once held the gems of Asian finance.

Smatterings of Chinese rule persist. Propaganda and appeasement perhaps. Bearded men on the street, wistfully reminiscing of the early 2000s.

Final Thoughts

Indeed Hong Kong needs China more than ever before. If the world gives up on Hong Kong, Hong Kong might still keep fighting. But it is not sustainable. China will not invest more to appease Hong Kong.

Mother China would rather solve the issues of its favourite children. Less so for its re-adopted bastard from a failed divorce with a guai lou.