Economics 8 - Critical Uncertainties and Battlegrounds of the Future

Published April 22, 2021 |

TLDR;

As I ramble on in this indulgent thought experiment, I first want to call out some aspects that I still understand poorly or that remain highly uncertain in the future


The Determinants of the future economy (within decades)

Through my past role in Strategic Planning, I have come to be very fond of a tool called Scenario Planning - a systematic way to look at how the future might play out. I definitely do not have the time or capacity to do this exercise in entirety, but are several major forces that remain uncertain to me, that will shape the economy of the future.

I describe these as Battlegrounds - there are stakeholders, opponents and proponents of both sides - but which will prevail?

*** WIP - Still drafting

Business: Heartless Scale vs Compassionate Niches

Consumers: Luxuriant Global Middle Class vs Conscious Consumption; Experiential vs Material Wealth

Economic: No-growth vs Growth - what will “pump” the economy?; Speed of resource allocation

Policy: Protection vs Predation