Hectic and busy as of late, with both work and personal.
On Love
Specifically, it has been celebratory time with the family - a big milestone / event happening for closed loved ones. Indeed, while there were some tragedies earlier in the year - with the old, comes the new, and so the cycle continues…
But in the pursuit of truth and overarching frameworks - Love is one of those everlasting mysteries, like life, art, and what goes into mcnuggets.
But a definition of love (that resonated stringly with me) is to, in principle minimise the worries of another.
Simple, but to achieve this requires several much more tangible steps:
- Share, and celebrate when times are good (achieving assurance, and shared joy)
- Minimise the burden of oneself, when times are bad (achieving peace and discipline)
- Catch problems / issues before they happen (achieving honesty and transparency)
That said, the 3rd point which can equally equated to aloofness, and a partial rejection of the (possibly necessary) human process of shared hardship and grief. Something to be mindful, and aware of.
On War
And if this blog is a diary of thoughts, in the context of history - Perhaps Love is ever more in demand, as Russia invades the Ukraine.
It is very, very hard to see the trajectories, as firstly, I no longer work in the field where i would observe geopolitics as often as i would; and secondly, things change quickly. But quick thoughts, as I have rarely commented so quickly on an evolving situation.
On Russia: If true (and social media is so rife with this, that I believe there is an intentional strategy to find/ interrogate demoralised Russian troops), there is an outrageously terrible miscalculation in its mobilisation. Putin’s Blitzkrieg does not appear to have been able to push through fast enough. The miltary plan did seem quite clear, but it was not immediately obvious. I am fairly sure a swift and decisive victory is critical.
Waging a long term guerilla war in Ukraine would be untenable. A failure of the war may very well pave the way to the next russian revolution. As repeated in history - external wars to distract its people from fundamental domestic problems is not the way to go. I would love to visit Russia and the baltics one day. And see for myself on what the situation is like there. A fascinating country with a fascinating history.
Never would I have associted the Mongols and Russia - but there are deep common elements in their history. David vs goliath (fight for Rus independency); control across multiple ethnicities (State management)
On Ukraine: Strong morale. The dynamic of both countries speaking the same language is interseting. Morale becomes a question of moral, without a clear “difference” in the enemy. Naturally, Russian troops aren’t sure what they are fighting for, while Ukrainians can easily take a clear moral compass in defending their own land.
I am curious on the future state of Ukraine if they succeed. While there is a strong sense of unity - there could also be deep economic issues in the long run. Its ability for self-determination - by having a grumbling bear on its east, as well as the transactional NATO on its west, will squeeze the future of Ukraine into an uncomfortable ham sandwich.
On US: Nothing new. A low appetite to fight direct wars. Physical military power and forward deployments may no longer be the way of the future in projecting power. Instead, it conflict could be centred on economic interpendency, and the ultimate control of human pscyhe.
On China: A battle between common prosperity vs continuing its narrative against the west. I think the option here is fairly clear. Taiwan’s future is in the hands of Taiwan, and less about external factors. I don’t forsee an immediate intensification of south china sea tensions.
On energy: The shift to energy independence is likely to increase. It is why I have held the principle for a long time (and with big thanks to Daniel Yergin’s books), that we cannot take the current energy system for granted, while many wearing their green-liberalist hats ought to read more history on conflict and war. Handcuffing oneself to oil pipelines; and splashing paint on buildings needs to be contextualised in the worst times of humanity.
It is the armchair businessman, who snarkily comment the most on the follies of hydrogen and other exportable forms of energy through a purely economic-technological lens without appreciating that energy has literally destroyed countries and reshaped the world. Energy will continue to be a critical asset, one that necessaitates diversification, and one that shapes global power.
Now being in the business (discloure lol), I am a fan of water electrolysis and its related technologies. But as always, these must be subject to the maths and requisite back of the envelope calculations - a sensible outlook for the world.