This post mirrors one that I had loosely outlined about sustainability (which I now can’t find).
These are complex topics, but its directive principles can be reduced down to: 1) Increasing the efficiency of impact vs consumption and 2) reducing consumption
Though when it comes to energy, I think I can afford to go into a bit more detail. And I’d also like to explore a nuance on the point of reduction if technology is able to catch up.
With this post, I hope to combat Energy Absolutism - where the complexity and urgency of the energy situation will require a thorough consideration of having all options open, albeit guided by a set on principles.
I don’t think they are terribly contentious, and could be a mental foundaton built on something unanimously accepted and recognised.
Principles underlying the pathway to decarbonisation
Principle 1: Using less energy at the point of consumption. Increasing efficiencies all around and minimising energy waste holds true in all cases. Better insulation for home heating, more efficient manufacturing processes, using less cars and more public transport - the list goes on and on.
Principle 2: Effciently distribute renewable energy where possible. This is where the Electrification-first model dominates, by transferring green energy via highly efficient grids from point-of-generation to point-of-consumption.
Princple 3: Energy must cater to the “lowest common denominators”. These includes fringe use cases where electrification is simply not possible. I am of the view that prevailing assumption that energy should be accessible to all is a fundamenal right.
Principle 4: A decarbonised, fuel-based industry is needed to fully serve all use cases. There are clear limits to electrification, be it technological (e.g. not feasible in use case), economic (too costly in certain regions/applications), or political (minimal grid dependency)
Principle 5: There is a premium to pay for clean fuels. I dispute the notion that some clean fuels are too inefficient and hence should be avoided - indeed, the world may increase its total energy consumption (very different from energy used by consumers), to enable the necessary steps to generate, transport, and store clean fuels.
I believe that if principle 4 is to be followed and that energy is to be made as accessible as possible, an increased amount of toal energy is required.
Can this be achieved? If one charts mankind’s energy consumption on a graph, I would say yes - the colossal amount of energy needed to bring decarbonised fuels to steady state is intimidating; but how does our current energy use today compare to that of one century ago? or two centuries ago? A span of three lifetimes will see an immense transformation in the energy world.
These define the following fundamental pathways, each to be treated considerably differently.
Renewbles to Electrification
Centralisation to gain efficiencies Starting with Centralising passenger vehicle emissions, for example, is a good pathway for this. Removing tailpipe emissions is a significant step towards decarbonisation. I believe that 1 large emitter is an easier problem to solve that dealing with a million small, fragmented emitters. Grid should be used wherever possible, especially in urbanised environments with high energy consumption density.
Renewable Fuels
I’m a believer in Hydrogen, although I must confess that its a topic close to mind and heart, now that i’m working directly in this field.
My belief in it is rooted in the fact that itss the most secure and clean form of fuel.
Why? From a political perspective, any renewable rich country can produce it, and any net energy importer can import from a wider range of sources - this lends itself well to countries maintaining independence and affordaibility. It frees countries to no longer be held to the terms of fossil fuel producing countries.
Technologically, I’ve seen some nascent new ideas, though the core technology has been around for a long time. I’ve a front row seat to the material science behind it all, and its certainly an area worth being excited about.
Economically, China has come online. Just as it did with Solar, just as it did with Batteries. The world will follow. Supply chains en-masse will unlock cheaper hydrogen generation, use, and more.
Caveats to note
The ultimate caveat is if the world does indeed choose to “de-fuel” in favour of direct electrification and its grids. We may see a very different world - with less long haul travel, less and an agglomeration of major economic activity (even moreso) into hive cities a la SciFi dystopia.
Another caveat is that there are drastic changes to the beahviour and consumption of energy. For example, new forms of transport or economic systems built around a reduced energy use.